PredictGuru

Monday, May 02, 2005

 

p5

15 billion dollars is up for grabs. That is the amount that banks and other financial institutions are supposed to spend in this year on systems that can track dirty money, frauds and payments to terrorist organizations. These systems are mostly built on the concepts of anomaly detection. Anamoly detection is a concept that was probably first introduced to figure out network intrusion detection to seperate out newer attacks. Traditional systems were rule based, but they can be easily defeated by any hacker. So the solution was to model what is normal (i.e normal usage) probabilistically. And whenever a newer entry in the logs that is not similar to any existing entry appears, classify it as an anomaly for human experts to review. The similarity measures and the modelling techniques for such things are already available in the pattern recognition world.
Now this idea is also applied to all banking transactions, as and when a new transaction is seen (such as suddenly 110 crore Rs transferred to the account of a person who doesnt even have a pan number) or a person getting a salary of 2lack pa suddenly getting a cheque for 30 lakhs) an anamoly can be signalled and the tax (possibly corrupt) officials can be allowed to handle it in a suitable way.
Guess would be fun to implement it and monitor it especially if u have contacts with the abpve mentioned tax officials.


Comments:
You can make trillions of rupees/dollars/euros if you can predict the stock market movement. ;)
 
Apparently IBM feels that the next generation of stock trading will be done by machines or intelligent agents.
http://www.ecs.fullerton.edu/~jo/research/Feng2003/Jo-Feng-isca2003.pdf
we need to be real fast to beat them.
 
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